John Waples: Agenda
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It is quite possible that you could be reading this in an airport lounge sitting out a delay to your flight. You will be irritable and likely to vent your frustration against both the airline and the airport operator, which if you are in southeast England or Scotland is most likely to be BAA.
That is why when the Competition Commission decrees this week that BAA’s monopoly of airport ownership should be broken up, the news will be met with almost universal glee.
However, the truth is that even if BAA is forced to sell one of its airports in southeast England — either Gatwick or Stansted — and another north of the border, it is unlikely to make a jot of difference to the future of aviation in Britain. The world’s big airlines want to go to Heathrow, not to Gatwick or Stansted, and it is doubtful whether a change in ownership will alter that.
Admittedly it could improve the customer experience and bring in some much-needed competition, but the future of Britain’s airports will be determined by regulation and planning and they have little to do with competition.
If a sovereign fund buys Gatwick it will not alter the fact that BAA is locked in a Herculean battle for a second runway at Stansted and a third at Heathrow. The commission’s findings will be welcomed, but they will not address the big picture.
Making airports work financially is about optimisation of the asset. That means pressing for more flights and more runways and it is the government and the Civil Aviation Authority that hold the key to that.
BAA’s Spanish owner Ferrovial accepts that a break-up is inevitable. It has a queue of buyers who have already declared an interest and the sale process could take two years. It will be some time before we can assess whether single ownership can change customer experi- ence. If a new owner can guarantee no delays and not having to spend the thick end of £40 for a family lunch then we can all rejoice, but I very much doubt it.
Alliance up in the air
BRITISH AIRWAYS’ plan to link with American Airlines brings together two aviation patricians. BA traces its roots back to 1919 and the world’s first scheduled air service, between London and Paris. When Charles Lindbergh made his famous solo flight across the Atlantic in 1927 he was an employee of Robertson Aircraft of Missouri, one of the companies that eventually formed American.
An illustrious history is no guarantee of commercial success, however. American is the biggest airline in the world, with a fleet of 960 planes, 82,000 staff and £11 billion in annual sales. Yet it has a stock-market value of just £1.4 billion, half that of Ryanair.
American’s problem, and that of most of the other so-called “legacy” carriers in the US, is the same as that faced by the big three in Detroit. General Motors, Ford and Chrysler find it hard to compete because they are saddled with salary, pension and healthcare costs that were taken on in the good times but have now become a millstone.
American and its peers can at least be thankful that they do not have to cope with the kind of low-cost, high-quality competition that has ripped the guts out of the Detroit three. US law prevents foreign companies from controlling airlines that fly on domestic routes. It has a second effect of stopping all takeovers of US carriers by foreign rivals.
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