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Alistair Darling reiterated government pleas for pay restraint yesterday, warning workers against the consequences of demanding inflation-busting wage deals as the cost of living soars.
As startling official figures showed headline inflation surging to its highest rate in 15 years, reaching 3.8 per cent last month, the Chancellor cautioned that excessive pay awards would drive inflation still higher, threatening to trigger interest rate increases.
He said: “Whether you are in the private sector or the public sector, whether you are sitting in the boardroom or working on the shopfloor, we cannot allow inflationary wage increases.”
The Bank of England has emphasised that should the jump in inflation spark inflationary pay awards it may have little choice but to raise the base rate, despite the deterioration in the wider economy.
Yet even as Mr Darling drove home that stark message yesterday, thousands of council workers were preparing to strike over pay. Brendan Barber, General Secretary of the TUC, said: “All they want is a decent living wage. Claims that decent wages will lead to spiralling inflation are wrong.”
The consumer price index measure of inflation rose to 3.8 per cent in June, up from 3.3 per cent in May, and nearly double the Bank of England's inflation target of 2 per cent. The CPI is at its highest since records began in January 1997. Based on historical data before this, inflation was last higher in May 1992.
Food prices rose by 2.4 per cent in June, pushing the annual rate of food inflation to 10.6 per cent, according to the CPI. This is the fastest pace of growth recorded since comparable figures started in 1997. Compared with the retail price index measure, prices last rose this fast in May 1982.
RPI inflation, which includes mortgage and housing costs, rose to 4.6 per cent, up from 4.3 per cent in May. This measure of inflation is commonly used in wage negotiations, raising fears that employees may demand bigger salaries to cover the increased cost of living.
Worryingly for the Bank, core inflation, which strips out the cost of food and fuel, rose to 1.6 per cent, from 1.5percent in May to the highest since last August, signalling that fuel and food inflation may be beginning to pass through to the wider economy, increasing the risk of a wage-price spiral.
Figures published yesterday showed that manufacturers' prices were rising at the fastest pace in more than two decades.
Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank of England, has already said that he expects inflation to rise to more than 4percent this year but economists said that that prediction may be too modest.
Jonathan Loynes, of Capital Economics, said: “There is worse to come, with the headline rate heading for 4.5percent or even 5.0percent by the autumn.” This gloomy data will further dent hopes of rate cuts, with many analysts forecasting that any cut will come next year at the earliest.
However, the inflation threat should be tempered today with the publication of figures that will show an increase in the unemployment figures.
The latest bleak economic news, coupled with worries about America's economy, sent shares in London's blue-chip companies diving by 2.4 per cent. The FTSE 100 closed down 128.5 points at 5,171.9 yesterday, its lowest close for more than three years.
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Retrospective windfall taxes on traders, bankers and other whizz kids who got us into this mess should be imposed to soften the blow on the needy and stimulate productive economic activity - manufacturing, gaining skills, etc., but not housing. Make them an example and the rest may fall into line.
Rob H, London,
Gordon already takes 60% of our pay through taxation in one form or another.
His incompetent management of the economy has caused this inflation.
If the poor do not get above inflation pay rises, they will be working for nothing.
3% rise on minimum wage equals poverty for the masses.
esward leigh, wigan, england
Browns midas touch turned out to be fool's gold. Everyone's luck runs out Gordon. RESIGN!
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
Im sorry Andy North but I don't find the present situation remotely "funny". For those of us struggling to make ends meet, whilst the cost of living continues to rise, it's not funny. It's a nightmare.
Richard, Norwich,
Anton in Wakefield, most of us would happily 'suffer' the consequence of not having a rate cut. Better still, we could 'suffer' from lower inflation if the BoE did what it ought to do and raised the base rate.
Paul, Coventry,
Ha ha ha... bring it on !! Greed is a vicious circle.... everybody was loving it with crazy house price increases; cheap loans; new cars; and cheap foreign imports ! We let Tesco drive down supplier prices whilst makin a Billion. The tax burden goes up supplying everything for those with less..LOL
Martin Sansone, London and LA, UK and USA
Like all sane people in this country they are really fed up with the den of thieves.
I have noticed that although these high fliers who maintain that they could treble their salaries if they were to go out into the "Real World"
Please Please Go and see what offers you would get.
TAX MPs HIGHER First
Royden, Bourne, England (not Scotland)
MPs Don't give a dam
Why should the true wealth earners listen to those who just sqander our money with no real thought
Why can't MPs be subject to the Inland Revenue like the rest of us
I would like to be abl;e to spend £30 a day (£10,800) without having to justify any of that to anyone
Margaret , Bourne, England
Seems somewhat rich when MP's vote themselves huge pension increases and keep the lid on their expenses.
And how some of them can justify a second home when their natural home family base is within reasonable commuting distance from the constituency and Westminster.
Andy, worcester,
Andy,
What are you alluding to exactly? (I think I have an idea but want to make sure:) )
Steve, Cheltenham,
Why doesn't the government and MPs lead by example?
Daisy, London,
It's funny to watch this whole thing unfold
They have been planning this collapse for a long time now and it's being implemented to perfection!
The price of oil is slightly higher than they planned for now, people are slightly more aware of it but the planners are very happy with the progress!
Andy, North, England
"Lets have inflation to erode our debt" says Rob.
His debt is retired peoples' savings. So people who have saved will be worse off, so the debt arising from his spending will be easier to repay.
Moral hazard writ large.
His view might be different when he is 65.
Richard Smith, Truro, UK
Rate Cut in Sept 08
Brown Cut ASAP
or suffer the consequences
Anton Muller, Wakefield,
So Labour proves that when the economy isn't running itself, they have no control or (in the case of their own expenses) moral leadership. Pleading with people to enter poverty to save an economy the government destroyed is despicable.
This government is dead and buried.
Ross, Ripon, UK
A little bit of inflation isn't really a bad thing. The outstanding balance on peoples mortgages/loans etc will become less in real terms(despite potentially having to pay more interest).
Lets have a good bit of inflation and the pay rises to match so we can inflate our way out of debt.
Rob, Bristol,
Pay restraint is fine but not when people have just had their tax increased. I am on strike today because on a very poor wage already, ( nowhere near commensurate with the work that I actually do) I am paying another £9 a month in tax and I will not get it back.
judy, Liverpool, England
Michael - adjustment of interest rates takes 18 months to have an effect. If they take drastic action now, the economy will begin to yo-yo to the opposite position in 18 months.
I am sure that, if workers sit with current pay, prices will not be reduced on these inflated products/services.
TK, London, England
Pay restraint when inflation is low, pay restraint when inflation is high. Does the government have any advice on when the poor old cash cow called the average working man can actually ask for a decent rise. Or are they all reserved for the city paracites & executives?
Pete, St Albans, England
Given this administration's (and Gordon Browns in particular) attitude to pensioners I just wonder if this is a prelude to a further attack on us by renaging on what will be our rightful increase based on the inflation rate later this year.
A.M.Williams, Stafford,
except for MP's of course who have a free run it seems. maybe they will realise soon that people have had enough of them and it is the only way of getting a change of attitude or government. they will probably want to change the law soon and ban political parties or change the election rules...mmm
neil, almere, holland
Perhaps, the Government may like to start by curbing their expenses ?
geedale, Leeds, west yorkshire
So the chancellor who has instructed the BoE to devalue our currency now has the audacity to plead for 'pay restraint'. Why? Inflating away all the mortgage and credit card debt is Darling's plan and Unison and Unite are fully supporting that.
Paul, Coventry,
Greedy Labour, with their punative tax policies pleading for pay restraint. Why? Labour created the inflationary pressures, with beaucratic legislation which they didn't understand. They thought they understood the economy and they didn't. They sold of assests at below market price.
steve tea, manchester, cheshire
Ha! And what pay restraint has there been in the City? They have paid themselves bonuses of 13 BILLION POUNDS so far this year! And they want working people to accept a lower standard of living? We're being ripped-off!
Mike Johnston, Dudley,
What is the point of a 2% inflation target for the MPC? If inflation rises to 4, 5, 6% and the Governor says he can do nothing about it - in the short term. How long does the MPC have? One year, 2 or longer? In the meantime inflation does its insidious damage to those on low and/or fixed incomes.
Michael Sykes, Reading,
The fundamental,critical problem is that interest rates are set based on meaningless inflation data,which is packed with non necessary electrical items. I can not believe the B of E is not insisting this be changed,as it is totally distorting all their decisions on rate movements.It is so obvious.
jackie, paphos, cyprus
And will the glorious incumbants at the Palace of Westminster lead by example and take a pay cut with a zero expenses culture? I very much doubt it.. Another case of do as I say not as I do!
Mike O Connor, Plymouth,
Tax Inflation is a major cause to wage demands. Stop aircraft carrier building; overpaid government staff; fraud & cheating by MPs, MEPs; far too many government layers; NHS; misdirected Social Security. Get real, if not done stopped, the markets will brutally and painfully enforce these controls.
Ron, Oxford,
Inflation-level wage hikes (4%) will not have a very significant effect on the overall rate of inflation, compared with some of the other major factors.
"Oor Gordy" McBroon, BoE and other bodies have been asleep on the bridge while the storm has been developing, then pass the pain to the less rich.
Padraig, Perth, Australia
Dont we have a right to have our wages set so that inflation has less impact on our daily lifes?
Joseph, london,
Everyone knows that inflation on essentials; food, heat & light, housing, transport, council tax, is much higher than the CPI or RPI or whatever spin driven measure of inflation that this Govt trots out. Gordon should have set the Bank of Englands targets firstly on Inflation of essentiatls.
John Goode, Welwyn Garden City, UK
employers are happy to pass through inflationary price increases in the cost of goods and services, so why should employees exercise pay restraint and see their standard of living drop.
David ashworth, Swindon, UK
From MPs who won't change their expenses system to something transparent and honest?
Pot/ kettle Darling?
Let's not forget the Government's "preferred" measurement of inflation excludes mortgage costs (up 20% for me this year) and Council Tax (6%), 3.8% would be nice, but is no way near true
Tim, Bristol,
Given that politicians have just voted themselves an inflation-busting pay rise, One does wonder how the Right Honourable Chancellor managed to keep a straight face while making this plea?
Richard Crow , Warsaw, Poland
The MPC has almost certainly been delinquent.
It slashed rates at every opportunity whenever house price inflation dropped below 9% for at least the last 8 years, regardless of inflation, ignoring pressures by citing alternative "long term targets".
We will suffer, and they will keep their jobs.
Barry, London, UK