Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent
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Nissan and Honda have entered a war of words over whether America has plunged into recession.
The split between the chiefs of two of the world's largest carmakers coincided with a warning from analysts that an unexploded bomb beneath US car loans will “inevitably” blow up and could become the next funding crisis to hit global markets.
Carmakers in Japan and the US have used increasingly aggressive financing techniques to shift vehicles, creating what many observers believe is a mountain of credit with significant risks of defaults.
In Tokyo today, Takeo Fukui, president of Honda, appeared bullish on the prospects for car sales in the US, stating: "I don’t foresee a recession. There are plenty of business opportunities."
However, only a few days ago Carlos Ghosn, Mr Fukui’s arch rival at Nissan, revealed an altogether more bearish outlook on the US.
Mr Ghosn, who jointly runs Nissan and Renault, said that the problem with American car sales was deepened by the accompanying pressures of the soaring cost of raw materials, especially iron ore and aluminium.
Mr Ghosn said: "We are very lucid on the situation of the industry that there is a recession in the United States, at least in the car market.”
Industry figures suggest that US car and lorry sales have already begun their slump, falling by nearly half a million vehicles to 16.1 million in 2007 — the worst annual performance since 1998 and the Asian financial crisis.
Nissan is understood to be assuming a similar fall-off in demand during 2008.
But even as the sub-prime destruction spreads, efforts to shift vehicles in the US have created greater incentives for people to take out long loans.
Christopher Wood, a CLSA strategist who warns of the “demise of credit” as the US housing crisis deepens, described car loans and credit card debt as the next areas of finance likely to generate big shocks.
Ten years ago, normal terms for a car loan in the US ran at about four years. Today, dealerships have begun to offer eight- and nine-year loans.
Even Toyota’s financial services arm has begun offering 84-month loans, which account for 4 per cent of its vehicle financing business.
Car analysts described the new super-long financing terms as “bubble-inducing” — the value of cars depreciates quickly, shedding about half their value after their third year.
About three quarters of the way into an 84-month loan, therefore, the car owner owes considerably more than the vehicle is worth.
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The last quarters growth in GDP is just 0.4%. It was mainly driven by the gowth in energy spending. Gowing further, we can expect a decline in net investments(with tight credit), decline in net exports with high oil prices and a decline in consumer expenditure(with low consumer confidence and decreased disposable income). All these factors would push the economy into recessionâ¦.so prepare for it ;)
Ajit , NJ,
David (Liverpool): - the advantage of buying a new car is the warranty and reliability. When I was in my twenties I thought I could only afford to buy and run second hand cars. When I was eventually persuaded (by my bank manager) to buy a new one, I discovered it actually cost less to run because I wasn't stumping up for repairs all the time. Ever since then I've only bought new cars, but looked after them, extended the warranties when required, and run them until I thought they were time for replacing.
MarkS, Leeds,
The reason people buy new cars is because they don't trust the dealers or previouse owners - any one with half a brain knows most cars will be worth little after 10 years and finace agreements that I am aware of that are on cars older than this are put in place on a personal loan - ability to pay bassis.
Marty, London, England
Antone taking out a loan to buy a new car must be crazy.Would you take out a mortgage on a house that would lose over 50% of its value after just 3 years.A loan for 7 years to buy a car is complete madness.You will want another car before the loan is paid.I can see loans and credit cards compounding the sub-prime problem.No wonder Egg appears to be pulling out of the market in the UK.Isn't it American owned now?
stephen hulton, eure, france
I have often wondered about why anyone buys a new car, given the startling depreciation. For the first three years of ownership some vehicled depreciate by 66% Why not just stand over a grid in the road and feed five pound notes into the drains at the rate of sixty pounds per week.
David Nammory, Liverpool,