Patrick Hosking, Banking and Finance Editor
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Only seven days ago all the chatter was about Peter Mandelson’s dramatic return to the Cabinet. Now, after the worst week for financial markets since the 1987 crash, the job-hopping antics of the “Prince of Darkness” rank as about as important as the manoeuvrings of a flea in the fur of a mouse on the back of an elephant hurtling towards the rocks below.
No one can now have missed the fact that all that testosterone-charged shouting in the dealing rooms of the City of London and Wall Street is not taking place in a parallel universe. The red dots on City computer screens yesterday were not just signalling the end of an era for traders, but danger for anyone with a job, home or pension.
Markets
What happened?
Share prices have been on a rollercoaster, but the overall direction is
sharply down. Hard to believe, but the FTSE 100 closed strongly higher last
week, at 4,980, as the US Congress finally approved the $700 million bank
bailout. But from the off on Monday, any lingering hopes that Hank Paulson’s
scheme could be a panacea to restore confidence were left in tatters.
Investors dumped shares at any price and retreated to the safe haven of gold
and government bonds as Iceland seized control of its floundering banks.
Apart from a brief respite on Tuesday, the selling frenzy has gone on
regardless. Forced sellers of shares – with creditors demanding repayment –
have had no choice but to sell regardless of price. By last night’s close,
the FTSE 100 had collapsed by 1,048 points to 3,932, a 21 per cent fall,
wiping £237 billion from company values. Bank shares too dived. Barclays
began the week at 368p and ended it at 207.5p; Royal Bank of Scotland was
down from 186.25p to 71.7p, HBOS fell from 200.5p to 124.2p.
Why should I care?
If you are one of the vast majority of employees in defined-contribution
pension schemes, your pension is at the mercy of markets and will be smaller
unless the markets recover. If you are lucky enough to be in a final salary
scheme, don’t feel too immune. The slump will cause a massive ballooning in
fund deficits and, outside the public sector, will exert huge pressure on
employers to axe their schemes, or force them to scrap dividends to plug the
gaps. Someone will have to pay to meet past pension promises. Anyone with an
insurance company endowment policy will also be hit if the share slump is
not reversed. Although insurers try to smooth payouts, they cannot possibly
withstand such a shock without cutting future bonuses sharply. The millions
of small shareholders in HBOS, Barclays and Lloyds TSB are nursing big
losses on paper and can forget that nice reliable twice-yearly dividend
cheque for the forseeable future.
Bank failures
What happened?
By the end of the week all three Icelandic banks, Glitnir, Landsbanki and
Kaupthing, failed and were in state control. Although based on the tiny
island, the scale and scope of their deposit-taking and lending made it a
major problem for other countries, particularly Britain. Alistair Darling
promised to guarantee all retail deposits with the three, but as of last
night was resisting pressure to cover the estimated £800 million of deposits
made by local councils, quangos and charities.
Why should I care?
Because you will certainly pay for the clear-up, probably through tax rises,
certainly through higher bank charges and less favourable interest rates,
possibly in higher charges from other financial services companies such as
insurers and independent financial advisers. The main lifeboat in Britain,
the Financial Services Compensation Scheme, will eventually collect from all
surviving banks. The Treasury has already written a £25 billion cheque to
underwrite Bradford & Bingley and Icelandic savings accounts. If Mr
Darling holds firm, council taxes may have to rise steeply. If he yields,
there will be more pressure to raise central government taxes.
The bailout
What happened?
The Government unveiled a radical rescue plan, earmarking £500 billion to help
high street lenders. It set aside £50 billion to invest in the shares of
banks, in effect offering to part-nationalise them. Of most immediate use,
it agreed to guarantee £250 billion of their short-term borrowings from
other financial institutions to free up the paralysed wholesale markets that
ultimately determine the supply and price of loans to the wider world. It
also upped to £200 billion the amount available to banks to borrow from the
Bank of England in exchange for lower-quality assets such as car loans and
buy-to-let mortgages. Two days on, the wholesale markets remain paralysed.
Why should I care? If all goes well, it need not cost a penny. But huge sums are now at stake. The £50 billion of equity capital, equivalent to an extra penny on income tax for 15 years, may never be repaid. The enormous scale of the bailout will make it more expensive for the Government to borrow, again pushing up taxes for years to come. The continuing big freeze in the wholesale markets means that it will for now remain very difficult or more expensive to get all kinds of debt, from mortgages to small business loans.
Savers
What happened?
Everyone had a nervous week, wondering if their nest egg was safe. By the end
not a single retail depositor lost a penny, though hundreds of thousands of
people were not immediately able to gain access to their money. The
Government promised to cover deposits of 300,000 savers with the Icelandic
bank Icesave, but not businesses, councils or charities. Most retail
depositors with Kaupthing were transferred to ING Direct, the Dutch bank.
Why should I care?
Your bank charges or taxes or both are almost certainly going up to pay for
the rescues. Greed, ignorance and negligence have been rewarded. The irony
is “rate tarts” who knowingly put money into institutions they knew nothing
about in pursuit of an extra interest are being bailed out. The more
sensible majority will pay for that mistake and even now their deposits in
mainstream UK banks are not explicitly guaranteed.
The economy
What happened?
It will be a few weeks before we know what has happened to the confidence of
consumers and business leaders. But it would be a miracle if confidence, the
lifeblood of business, has not drained away by the bucketload. In every
home, purchases of big-ticket items such as cars, furniture and white goods
will have been deferred. In every boardroom, business people are likely to
have shelved capital investment plans and to have rushed forward
cost-cutting programmes. Interest rates were slashed across the West by half
a percentage point on Wednesday, but the feelgood-factor unleashed lasted
only a few hours.
Why should I care?
Because the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King’s “NICE era” (noninflationary
continuous expansion) is now well and truly over. Britain is almost
certainly in a recession and inflation is double what it should be.
Unemployment was already rising at its fastest for 16 years. The City, the
housebuilding sector and some parts of the high street have already seen the
axe fall. Now a much broader swath of job losses looks unavoidable.
Housing
What happened?
The Halifax revealed that house prices were sliding at their fastest since
record keeping began 25 years ago. Since September 2007, prices have on
average dropped 13.3 per cent to £172,108. But that average disguises much
bigger price collapses, particularly of unwanted properties like inner-city
flats. The carnage of the past few days could topple more people into
serious financial trouble, triggering fire sales of properties and forcing prices
lower still. One glimmer of hope for stability is anecdotal evidence of cash
buyers, desperate to find a home for their money outside the financial
markets, starting to shell out for property.
Why should I care?
For first-time buyers and younger homeowners looking to trade up, the plunge
is very good news, always assuming that they can find a lender. For older
homeowners thinking of trading down or selling up to fund their retirement,
it’s very bad news. Until banks start looking to lend again, it’s hard to
see the house price fall ending. Unfortunately, until house prices stop
falling, it’s hard to see banks wanting to lend again - a Catch 22
situation.
Our ten indicators
Yesterday we gave ten day-by-day measures to gauge if things are getting better. Here’s how they did:
Gold the classic refuge, down $3 to $890 an ounce. Verdict: better
Three-month sterling Libor the benchmark for pricing UK loans: up 0.004 per cent to 6.285 per cent. Verdict: slightly worse
Savills share price a barometer for the housing market: down 14.5p to 226.25p. Verdict: worse
Brent crude oil future down $6 to $76.66 per barrel. Verdict: better
Sterling trade-weighted index economic virility symbol: down 1.2 to 88.8. Verdict: much worse
WPP share price a warning signal for consumer confidence: down 27.25p to 367p. Verdict: worse
Vix volatility index measure of traders’ mood swings, up 9.81 to 73.7. Verdict: much worse
Hays share price a proxy for job prospects: unchanged at 71.5p. Verdict: unchanged
Wheat price Western food staple: still at £93.50. Verdict: unchanged
The FTSE 100 down 382 at 3,932. Verdict: much worse
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When we are all paying more income tax, more council tax and a whack load more on our mortgages, when fat salaries and big city bonuses return .. will we remember to question the real reasons for this implosion?
emma hart, london,
Excellent article. Says the truth, even though it hurts....
Nick, London,
Only Iran is celebrating. Iran is happy that Great Satan is sinking for its "crimes". Top Shiite Cleric said economic crisis is "Divine Retribution" for killing innocent Iraqis. US has no place to run or hide.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7663487.stm
Roy, Stockport, UK
LET'S HAVE a FULLSCALE PUBLIC ENQUIRY to find out exactly how we got into this mess in the UK to learn lessons and find culprits
peter c, Devizes, Wessex
Times 21 Sep 2008 How to protect your investment portfolio
Providers with an overseas parent company offer the top rates and, as they are registered by the FSA, deposits are covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme...Icelands Icesave [pays] 7.06%...over one year and on deposits of £1.
Jennie, London,