Alice Thomson
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The bankers are fleeing. I got a message from a friend this week. “We've decided to downscale and go to Venice for a bit. We're in a flat on the Grand Canal, the children are learning Italian, the weather is wonderful and it feels like we can finally relax after ten years of madness.”
That's fine then. The City folk are taking what remains of their money and fleeing to sunnier climes to recuperate and recharge, to return when the crisis is over. Everyone else in Britain will have to sit it out. Scotland, the North, graduates, the retired, everyone will feel the effects of the recession. The Home Office has given warning in a leaked memo of more crime, racism and extremism.
But recessions don't bring unmitigated woe. During the past ten years of boom, a small, rather Eeyorish, group of American economists and psychologists has been trying to work out whether people really are better off in what Gordon Brown once called “the Golden Years” and now refers to as the “Age of Irresponsibility”.
Their answer is that recessions (rather than booms or depressions) might actually be a blessing. People tend to drink less, smoke fewer cigarettes and lose weight. They enrol in higher education, the air is cleaner, the roads are less crowded.
When times are good, research by Stanford University and the University of North Carolina shows that people of all classes tend not to take care of themselves and their families. The better off may have gym membership but all classes drink too much (especially before driving), they eat more fat-laden food - either pre-packaged from supermarkets or in restaurants - and are more likely to neglect their families. In downturns, people have more time to visit their elderly relatives and are more likely to look after their children themselves rather than booking them into expensive after-school activities or crèches.
Grant Miller, an assistant professor of medicine at Stanford, says that in a boom people work longer, harder hours to take advantage of the conditions and are more stressed and less likely to do things that are good for them: “Cooking at home and exercising are seen as a waste of time.”
But when wages drop, and jobs are scarce, the young feel that it makes more economic sense to prolong their education, and the elderly will retire earlier because there is less incentive to keep earning.
This research backs up a paper, published in 2000, entitled Are Recessions Good for your Health? by Christopher Ruhm, professor of economics at the University of North Carolina. Professor Ruhm analysed death rates from 1972 to 1991, comparing them to economic shifts. He found that for every 1 per cent increase in unemployment rates, there was a 0.5 per cent decline in the death rate.
The number of suicides rose by an average of 2per cent during recessions in this period and cancer deaths by 23 per cent, but this was easily outweighed by the decrease in deaths from heart disease and car crashes. People not only eat more healthily in recessions but they tend to drive less, either as an economy measure or because they are no longer commuting to their jobs. When unemployment rates rise by a point, the number of fatal car crashes decreases by 2.4 per cent.
In another paper, Healthy Living in Hard Times, Professor Ruhm suggests that in America during the recession in the 1990s, smoking, particularly among heavy users, declined by 5 per cent.
Ralph Catalano, professor of public health at the University of California, Berkeley, believes that it is an oversimplification to say that recessions are good for people, but he thinks that they do encourage healthier lifestyles. “People who are worried about losing their jobs do things that keep them from getting laid off - they drink less and take fewer risks.”
Environmentalists may also find their work easier during a recession. Only two years ago consumers were throwing away one apple in four, people bought a new television set on average every two years and redecorated their kitchens every time they moved house.
But those who have refused to be thrifty for green reasons have now to start rationalising their lives for economic ends. In the past six months councils have reported increased use of libraries and a fall in the quantity of household rubbish.
There are other benefits to this downturn. Prices for necessities are dropping. Food prices are beginning to level out as supermarkets compete with £1 pizzas. Petrol prices have gone down. House prices have fallen by 10.9 per cent, mortgage rates are dropping. More people are turning to eBay and even here prices are falling. The average selling price of a home entertainment system has dropped to £62.49 from £99.58 three months ago.
Shops on the high street have increased the number of bargains - even toothbrushes are now discounted. “This is the deepest and biggest discounting in years,” Richard Dodd of the British Retail Consortium said.
But at least the boom made people happy? That's not entirely true either. According to the Office for National Statistics, levels of contentment have remained the same, at around 87 per cent, for the past ten years and are lower than during the recession in the 1970s. No amount of espresso machines or mini-breaks seemed to satisfy people.
So while there is no such thing as a good recession, it doesn't have to cause unmitigated gloom and despondency.
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Savings "lost"?
Oh, be fair.
Henry Paulson has devoted his life to stealing the baby boomers' nest eggs - hence the high leverage, low interest rates, dodgy paper, no supervision, massive bonuses, low taxes, and free run of the banking system.
Give him credit - or else he'll steal it.
Bob Jackson, Christchurch, New Zealand
Oil prices have halved from their peak of $147 but street petrol prices have only fallen 10%. Somebody still profiteering. £1 pizza yes and less nutritious. Prices of other essential items have nearly doubled. Discounts are in the slow moving items while the high moving items are priced high
Jagadish, Bromley, England
I get paid the same, the price of necessities is falling, I dont' need to move home as I ploughed most of my savings into a house which will still be standing whetever happens in the world of "virtual" finance. I get all the fun of watching city speculators squirm as well. What am I missing?
Shocker, Cambridge, UK
The one absolute winner that will come out of the Global Depression of 2008-2018 will be the environment.
Less GDP/person = less disposable income = less consumption = less pollution = less CO2.
Whether the change is big/fast enough to help, remains to be seen. we may still have to face those costs
dhome, sydney, australia
I must say I agree. Everyone has slowed down on the motorways, they are less crowded, you see more and more people on pedal cycles, including me!
I'm saving on average £50 per month in petrol costs, purely because i'm cycling to work. I'm also a lot fitter than I was six months ago. Go on try it
Darren Palmer, Sevenoaks,
The potential mass unemployment is bound to cheer people up and the probable withdrawal of aid to third world countries is sure going to make life there better, what an inane article, thats about half a dozen of them at least in the Times this week, too many Im going to have to go somewhere else .
am, letchworth,
Clair, mine and many hundreds of thousands pensions were wiped out by a lunatic politician in 1997 called Gordon Brown.
We certainly didn't get any sympathy from the financial institutions, who exploited the Brown legislation to pump up profits.
.
geoffthereff, Bolton, UK
petrol prices have fallen? where?
mike, leeds,
Kim, it is so sad that you have no sympathy for those who are heading for retirement. When you have saved all your life and see it wiped out because of the irresponsible actions and greed of lunatic bankers you deserve more than just sympathy.
Clair, london,
Nice try at being positive, but millions of people's lives and futures will be ruined by factors outside their control but are the result of others not acting to prevent the bleeding obvious. We will also have a new generation asking, "What did you do in The Great Depression of 2009, grandad?"
E.Cowham, Melbourne, Australia
The responses to this article illustrate clearly that the recession will be good for some, and bad (or terrible) for others. Seeing a silver lining does not mean we shouldn't help those who lose out. But if recession causes cuts in greenhouse gas emissions then it will do good in the long term.
Richard Milne, Edinburgh,
What is great about this article is that the back research points to an underlying premise of boom drven selfishness in society (Like we needed an article to point that out!). When the cash dries up we are driven back to family, health and community. Nice insight.
Hayden Baker, London,
Try saying that if you end up sleeping in a cardboard box, having lost your job, home and family.
Try saying that if you have lost your savings in the stock market.
Peter Harding, Manchester, UK
And I suppose the stress of not knowing whether you will have a house, job or ever be able to retire is also beneficial. I understand what the author is trying to say but it doesn't help those people who have been caught up in the crisis.
DCH, Nottingham, UK
I agree with this article wholeheartedly. A recession is a chance to prune deadwood - troubled businesses go bust, overstretched people cut back. Lots of opportunities. As for people retiring, you should have spent the last 5 years diversifying and planned for any event. No sympathy here!
Kim, London, Englan
Your friends have "downscaled" to Venice? It's one of the most expensive places on earth!
Paul, Cambridge, England
good article. it reminds us that money does not make u happy. u can be happy no matter what.
anthony wong, london, uk
It may be tongue in cheek, but this is an irresponsible article. For those approaching retiring age, the anxiety of losing hard earned savings in addition to worthless pensions is enough to drive anyone to drink. Alcohol related diseases are still socially acceptable, one hopes.
Dwight Vandryver, Scholar Green, UK
Of course, the rich champagne socialists, safe and sound knowing that the other people can suffer for their cause.
Presumable you'd be happier if everybody was out of work and living in caves?
DH, London,
Chardonnay talk obviously you are not expecting to be poor.
Jon, Melbourne, Asutralia
Alison,
There are 10 MILLION PEOPLE in the United States that do not know where their next meal is going to come from, CAPITALISM maybe working for you, but evidently it is NOT working for a good many of your fellow citizens. Now what is it you were saying is "GOOD" about this recession.
Scott Smith, Huntington Beach, United States
The most constructive thing to come out of this entire debacle is that people are being forced to become more politically aware and critical of government actions. Maybe democracy needed a good scrubdown. But that won't get you your house back.
Udo, Melbourne, Australia
I loved this article and have e-mailed it to friends in New York!
Jess Adams, Sydney, Australia
I agree with Neil. In the next few months the crime rate will also soar, It happened before and could be a lot worse this time.
Pauline Edwards, Birmingham, England
"So while there is no such thing as a good recession, it doesn't have to cause unmitigated gloom and despondency."
Try saying that if you loose your job and home.
Neil Murphy, Cromer ,