BOOKMAKERS have never been known to quail when I darken their door and last week I was reminded that only three of my predictions for last season’s Heineken Cup quarter-finals reached that stage. It might sound like a feeble excuse to claim that the tournament is gloriously unpredictable.

Except that it is. Anybody piling on any team one week before it begins is either a fool or a supreme optimist because the vivid, cross-cultural burst of super rugby is back and any side from six or seven could win it.

The unpredictabilities are even more extensive this term, with at least two teams from outside the normal ranking list now advancing - Leinster and the Ospreys. If the former find the bottle and the latter the consistency, then the list of potential winners grows longer.

It is also important to gauge the motivation of the teams.

One or two of the major French contenders, notably Clermont Auvergne, would, if given the alternative, settle for victory in the French Top 14.

In terms of energy, Munster and Leinster are well favoured because they can keep gas in the tank purely for Europe. Until the Magners League is the sole basis for European qualification, then the two Irish teams have the advantage of coasting through parts of the season. The English and French clubs are engaged in a weekly death-or-glory existence and even the Heineken Cup often seems to melt into the relentless season.

Furthermore, it is difficult to predict how the tournament will be played. As well as the experimental laws, there are the International Rugby Board strictures on the breakdown. Some countries are applying them to the letter and others ignoring them, so too many games in Europe this year could prove to be an annoying talking shop and penalty festival.

There is also thegalacticos factor. Many of the great players arriving from the southern hemisphere are yet to make a significant impact. Those who appreciate the change of culture and the need to learn will have the biggest influence in Europe.

Munster must have a decent chance of retaining the trophy they won in that distinctly nonvintage final in Cardiff in May, when Toulouse let down their own proud traditions.

It has been said that the English challenge could be the weakest for some years. In the Guinness Premiership so far we have seen the usual intensity and depth but little evidence that a truly great side is in the making. Sale appeared to have the basics until they collapsed at London Irish last week and Leicester must have been horrified by their own appalling performance against Wasps.

So it seems that the most likely challenge will come from the Ospreys and the best of the French. Toulouse have been playing without spark, ambition and pace but, at their best, they are always favourites. Stade Français are the prettiest team and they become powerful contenders if they can also prove to be the most muscular.

However, even to predict the last eight is fraught with problems. The only certainty is the utterly compelling nature of rugby’s most varied, fervent, maddening and coveted event.

Pool 1

MUNSTER
Best ever Champions 2006 and 2008 Key man Ronan O’Gara. If he gets injured, forget it
SALE SHARKS
Best ever Quarter-finals 2006 Key man Andrew Sheridan, the forward heart of the team
CLERMONT AUVERGNE
Best ever Quarter-finals 2002 Key man Vern Cotter. Coach charged with uniting so many nationalities
MONTAUBAN
Best ever N/A Key man Marc Raynaud, heroic flanker
PROJECTED FINISHING ORDER Munster, Clermont Auvergne, Sale Sharks, Montauban

Pool 2

LONDON WASPS
Best ever Champions 2004 and 2007 Key man Danny Cipriani’s confidence alone could rescue a dire start
LEINSTER
Best ever Semi-finals 1996, 2003 and 2006 Key man Rocky Elsom, the new Aussie flanker, has a harder edge
CASTRES
Best ever Semi-finals 2002 Key men Mark McCall and Jeremy Davidson, culture-hopping Irish coaches
EDINBURGH
Best ever Quarter-finals 2004 Key man Andy Robinson, the driven coach, trying to harden the attitudes
PROJECTED FINISHING ORDER Leinster, London Wasps, Edinburgh, Castres

Pool 3

LEICESTER TIGERS
Best ever Champions 2001 and 2002 Key man The fly-half, whoever he is. They may rue releasing Andy Goode
PERPIGNAN
Best ever Runners-up 2003 Key man Dan Carter, because if he’s poor the whole edifice of hope crumbles
OSPREYS Best ever Quarter-finals 2008 Key man Ryan Jones, Herculean No 8 and driving force
BENETTON TREVISO
Best ever Double over Bourgoin and defeat of Bath in 2004-05 Key man Fraser Waters, now missed at Wasps
PROJECTED FINISHING ORDER Ospreys, Leicester, Perpignan, Benetton Treviso

Pool 4

STADE FRANCAIS PARIS
Best ever Runners-up 2001 and 2005 Key man Juan Martin Hernandez. Rugby’s Maradona
SCARLETS
Best ever Semi-finals 2000, 2002 and 2007 Key man Regan King, wisdom in the centre personified
ULSTER
Best ever Champions 1999 Key man Andrew Trimble, must give them a focal point in midfield
HARLEQUINS
Best ever Quarter-finals 1997 and 1998 Key man Nick Evans, the All Black fly-half, at the tiller
PROJECTED FINISHING ORDER Stade Français, Harlequins, Scarlets, Ulster

Pool 5

TOULOUSE
Best ever Champions 1996, 2003 and 2005 Key man Yannick Nyanga, storm-force flanker
BATH
Best ever Champions 1998 Key man Steve Meehan, the coach, is doing a marvellous job
NEWPORT GWENT DRAGONS
Best ever Beat Stade Français and Ulster in 2003-04 Key man Paul Turner, coach with talent but not resources GLASGOW WARRIORS
Best ever Quarter-final playoff in 1998 Key man Giant prop Moray Low
PROJECTED FINISHING ORDER Toulouse, Bath, Newport Gwent Dragons, Glasgow Warriors

Pool 6

BIARRITZ
Best ever Runners-up 2006 Key man Dimitri Yachvili, scrum-half and ball-hogger. It is key that they drop him GLOUCESTER
Best ever Semi-finals in 2001 Key man Olly Barkley, ex-Bath, signed to give them authority in midfield
CARDIFF BLUES
Best ever Runners-up 1996 Key man Paul Tito, the rumbustious, flame-haired Kiwi lock and captain
CALVISANO
Best ever Beat Neath and Beziers in 2002-03 pool Key man Paul Griffen, scrum-half with huge sideburns
PREDICTED FINISHING ORDER Gloucester, Cardiff Blues, Biarritz, Calvisano